Here I will be collecting all of the game previews that I have time to write. It’ll serve as somewhat of a blog but also an easy collection of data and stats. I turned on the ability to comment so anyone who feels like they want to add or critique something can feel free to do so 🙂
This win probability is solely predicted by the model and takes into account the overall team strength. It does not take into account missing/injured players.
This takes into account difference in goalie strength and missing players on both teams. It is only available once the lineup is posted and accessible through the CHL website.
Acadia Bathurst keeps rotating between Fleming and Keller. Despite Keller outperforming Fleming, it looks like Fleming will get the start. Milner gets the start for Halifax.
<aside> 🥅 Both goalies have performed similarly with a GAA of 3.18 and 3.27 for Fleming and Milner, respectively. However, with 4 games more played Fleming seems to have the overhand in terms of ice time this season. Both goalies saved less shots than expected with Milner having a Goals Saved Above Expected of -4.6 and Fleming of -7.28. It is interesting to compare where both goalies struggle. It appears Milner looses most of his points in the Goals Saved Above Expected category when it comes to high danger shots. On the other side of the ice, Fleming seems to have let in 7 low danger shots that should have been saved. I believe we will see some solid performance from Milner (as per last games) and we can expect to get see some goals for the Mooseheads after which one will think “Fleming should have saved that”. No goalie really has the upper hand tonight.
</aside>
The Titan have no players on the injury list which may give them an edge tonight as they will be at their full strength. Halifax on the other hand is missing it’s top forwards Dumais and Vidicek while also missing Rousseau in the net and Furlong in the defence. Those players are at the Team Canada Camp. Additionally, Halifax is still short Levesque and Crosby.
<aside> 🏒 Most Mooseheads fans will probably have their eyes on Henneberry as he may be a great addition once the trade period opens. With a 54% faceoff probability (268 out of 494 won) he seems to be a great option to replace, or supplement, Larmand. On the side for the Titan, Orr and Arsenault also have had a great start to the season but still struggle to score with the highest Goals Above Expected being at 2.17. Specially Orr seems to be missing that last touch with a Goals Above Expected of -6.59. For the Mooseheads, all the weight will be on Cataford and Fournier to produce - both with a Goals Above Expected of 5.58 and 3.52, respectively. A player to also keep an eye on for a surprise goal is Reece Peitzsche. While his performance hasn’t been stellar and he is underperforming compared to his expectations (-0.99 Goals Above Expected), during his last games he has created some great chances which show his potential to score.
When comparing both top 3 forwards, it is shocking to see the difference in shots. The lowest shot total for the top 3 titan players is at 90 (Henneberry) while Cataford, who has the highest shot total of the Mooseheads, only tried his luck 90 times. On the paper, both groups of players are pretty similar with the Titan having the slight edge due to the drop off in scoring after Brody Fournier for the Mooseheads. However, with Milner having a slight edge on Fleming we can expect a tight game.
</aside>